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Technical Analysis for April 15, 2011


EUR/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-04-15


The spot rates approaches the upper limit of its medium-term bearish channel to 1.4520. A break of these levels would free up significant potential and begin a rising trend.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1.4520 with a 1st objective of 1.4610, then 1.4650. A break in 1.4490 would invalidate this scenario.


Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011





GBP/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-04-15


The spot rates approaches the upper limit of its medium-term bearish channel to 1.6410. A break of these levels would free up significant potential and begin a rising trend.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1.6410 with a 1st objective of 1.6520, then 1.6550. A break in 1.6380 would invalidate this scenario.



Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011





GOLD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-04-15


Gold is approaching the intermediate resistance of its medium term bullish channel  to 1479 suggesting a decline in the short term. However a break of these levels would reach the upper limit of this one in 1489.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1479 with a 1st objective of 1489, then 1492. A break in 1477 would invalidate this scenario.



Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011





USD/JPY Intraday Technical analysis 2011-04-15


The spot rate approaches the upper limit of its medium-term bearish channel to 83.80 suggesting a decline in the short term. However a break of these levels would free up significant potential and begin a rising trend.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 83.80 with a 1st objective of 84.50, then 84.80. A break in 83.60 would invalidate this scenario.



Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011





The USD/CHF technical analysis and trading recommendations for April 15, 2011

4-hour timeframe


Overview:

The franc price is still in the downside movement, the formed sell signal is strong and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated below the price graph and the price is below the Ichimoku cloud, there are no signs of correction. Thus, at the moment the first target for the downside movement is 0.8905 – the second support level, as the price managed to pass the first one. If this level is passed the second target will be the third support level at 0.8750. Downside movement remains while the price is below the Kijun-sen (0.9000), if the price fixates above this line it is recommended to cut short positions, as the current signal would weaken. The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, which confirms the current sell signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the beginning of the downside movement, the lines are diverging and directed down. The MACD is ascending, however we do not see any upside movement; the price is steadily declining, thus we can ignore this indicator.

Trading recommendations:

Currently it is recommended to trade down with target at 0.8905 and further to 0.8750. Stop Loss should be placed above 0.9000.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

The chart annotation:

Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen - red line
Kijun-Sen
- blue line
Senkou Span A
- light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B
- light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span
- green line

Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines

MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.



Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011





The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for April 15, 2011

4-hour timeframe


Overview:

The euro is still observing a buy signal, however a sideways movement is in advance, which is demonstrated by the Bollinger Bands, therefore it is recommended to resume trading up after the correction ends. The formed buy signal is strong and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price is above the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the upside movement is 1.4599 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the second target will be the second resistance level at 1.4713. Upside movement remains while the price is above the Kijun-sen (1.4440), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span is above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the ending upside movement, the lines are not diverging and directed sideways, which is also a beginning of the sideways movement. The MACD is ascending, which indicates current upside movement, which is probably limited by the sideways channel.

Trading recommendations:

Currently it is recommended to trade up with target at 1.4599 and further to 1.4713. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.4440. Long positions should be opened after the Bollinger Bands start to diverge to the upside.

In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.


The chart annotation:

Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen
- red line
Kijun-Sen
- blue line
Senkou Span A
- light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B
- light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span
- green line

Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines

MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.



Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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Sunday, April 17, 2011 | 6 comments | Read More

Forecast for April 13, 2011


USD/JPY Daily Forecast for April 13, 2011


DAILY  FORECAST :


Today the USD/JPY has been trading between the 5 periode Moving Avarage and the 20 periode Moving Avarage and in the range between 83.59 and the 84.21 levels. These two levels have a potential to be tested by this pair today, but if we look at the daily charts, the Stochastic studies is still in a Bearish Mode; so we predict that today the pair will test the support at 83.59 and the 3 days low at the 83.48 level. On the other hand, if the Resistance 84.21 can be broken by this pair today, the USD/JPY will test the 84.50 as the first target and the 84.71 as the second target.



Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011





EUR/USD Daily Forecast for April 13, 2011


DAILY  FORECAST :


Today this pair has a chance to trade in a sideways  situation, because yesterday it closed in a range between the April 8th / 2011 high and low bar. It seems the EUR/USD will be trading between 1.4437 and the yesterday's high at 1.4518, if the yesterday's high can be broken out, this pair will test the next Resistance at 1.4550; however, because the Stochastic Studies is in "overbought" area, there's a chance the pair will get some correction or retracement, if the 1.4434 can be broken, it will have a chance to go down to 1.4422 as the first target and the 1.4378 as the second target.



Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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Sunday, April 17, 2011 | 0 comments | Read More

Stock Markets for April 13, 2011


Wheat review for April 13, 2011




By the end of CBOT trades the prices for May futures on wheat declined by 6 ¾ cent (1.7%), by 7.52 ¾ US dollars per bushel. The US meteorological service forecasts precipitations in the region of the Great Plains which improves expectations of the market regarding the quality of winter wheat harvest.

However, other regions of wheat cultivation (Texas and Oklahoma) are expected to get less moisture than needed that is why rainless weather will be unfavourable for harvest. Yet, traders’ attention has been focused on the news about rain in Kansas and Nebraska since there are concerns over precipitations in other US states which is to brighten the situation with harvest. Under all these circumstances traders decided to close part of long positions.

Besides, as exports data showed, The Middle East countries continued buying American wheat, in smaller volume though. It exacerbated the concerns over demand decline of demand due to high prices.




Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011





Cattle review for 13 April, 2011


Futures on cattle grew on Wednesday amid purchases for lowered prices. Earlier futures dropped to their lows for week and a half. By the end of CME trades, April futures on cattle increased by 0.60 cent (0.51%) up to 1.1827 US dollars per pound. June contract closed with a gain of 0.17 cent having thus constituted 1.3302 US dollars per pound.

Futures increased amid weakening US dollar which has been intensifying the expectations of export demand growth, even though import demand showed decrease.

Dropping US dollar makes futures less expensive for those who operate with other currencies.
Another source of support for the market is the growth of prices for lean pork. They rose amid the prospects of seasonal decline in supply.

Market participants consider that futures growth may well continue after last week large-scale sales. On the other hand, cash prices for beef tend to decrease in mid-April as more meat comes to the market. Prices fall is indispensable for demand to grow. At the same time export sales can support the market. Yet, many traders have been expressing concerns over high wholesale prices possible to have an opposite effects.

These concerns exacerbated shortly after the US Agriculture Department announced the wholesale prices for beef to have grown by 0.43 cent per pound.




Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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Saturday, April 16, 2011 | 1 comments | Read More

Review for April 14, 2011


USD Review 14-04-2011


USD againts Major Pair Review :

The USD Dollar weakened againts almost all major pairs except  the GBP that traded in a ranging situation againts the USD. Againts the EUR, CHF and the YEN, the USD is still in a downside situation.


USD Againts Commdoll :


Againts the Commodity Dollar Pair, the USD still looks weak as well, event againts the CAD and the AUD, the USD strengthened slightly, but the bearish pressure for the USD is still in advance.


Conclusion :

Because the USD still has a bearish pressure in almost all Major Pair and the Commodity Dollar, we predict for today that the USD will be still in a downtrend situation againts all the major and the comdoll pair.


Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011





EURO Review 14-04-2011


EURO Againts Major pair :


The Euro Pair  won againts the USD and the GBP pair, but againts the YEN and CHF pair, the Euro Dollar declined.


EURO Againts Commdoll :

Againts the AUD, it seems the Euro Pair traded in a ranging situaion (red: the Buyeers and Sellers its equal), the Euro got a temporary winning side before the pair came back  into the sideways range; However the Euro Pair is still a winner againts the Loonie, However againts the Kiwi, the Euro Pair is in a losing situation.


Conclusion :

Because againts the majors only two Euro Dollar wins and with the two other the Euro Pair loses, againts the Comdoll one pair is in a sideways movement, the other wins, and the rest lose, we predict based on all the facts that we've already mentioned above, the Euro Pair is now in the "Overbought" situation .



Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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Saturday, April 16, 2011 | 0 comments | Read More

Wave Analysis for April 15, 2011


AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - April 15, 2011

AUD/USD is developing potential wave 5 of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart. To confirm wave 5 break above 1.0580 is needed. On smaller timeframes this wave consists of A-B-C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 0.9709-1.0313-1.0204 (waves 1-2), 1.0204-1.0580-1.0389 (waves 3-4), 1.0389-1.0538-1.0457 (subwaves A-B).

Resistances:

- 1.0577 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0606 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0621 = COP
- 1.0698 = expanded objective point (XOP)

If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0457-1.0558, 1.0389-1.0558, 1.0204-1.0580.

Supports:

- 1.0508 = .50 retracement
- 1.0496-93 = confluence area of .618 and .382 retracements
- 1.0474 = .50 ret
- 1.0454 = .618 ret



Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is up (wave of a larger degree is now up), it's preferable to look for longs when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (20-30 pips below the current prices - this roughly corresponds to 1.0508 Fib support).



Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011





GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - April 15, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave 4 of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart. Wave 4 has 2 subwaves within it (A-B), and subwave B is still developing - colored magenta in the chart. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 139.93-135.19, and expansions (if the price goes higher than 139.93) off 122.49-133.04-130.18 (waves 1-2), 130.18-139.93-135.19 (waves 3-4).

Resistances:

- 137.00 = .382 retracement
- 137.56 = .50 ret
- 138.12 = .618 ret
- 140.73 = objective point (OP)
- 141.22 = contracted objective point (COP)

If the price keeps declining the immediates supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.18-139.93, 122.49-139.93, and expansions off 139.93-135.19-136.96.

Supports:

- 135.06 = .50 retracement
- 134.03-133.90 = confluence area of COP and .618 retracement
- 133.27 = .382 ret
- 132.22 = OP



Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the wave of a larger degree (corrective subwave B) is moving up it's preferable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (10-30 pips).



Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011





EUR/USD wave analysis for April 15, 2011


In general, as expected, during yesterday’s trading the EUR/USD currency pair declined to the correction level 38.2%; afterwards it made an attempt to resume growth by reaching the 45 figure level by the end of the day. Therefore, the price has most likely completed the formation of the 4th wave (in the 5th). If so, then such resumed growth of the price has indicated the beginning of the 5th wave (in the 5th), at the same time targets for this 5th may be located in a quite wide range from the levels located slightly above the 45 figure level and up to the 1.4700 level.



Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011





USD/JPY wave analysis for April 15, 2011


Yesterday the USD/JPY currency pair continued to decline and tested the correction level 50.0% during the European session. At the same time, all downside movement initiated April 6 obtained the characteristics of a five-wave structure. Therefore, we might assume that inner wave structure of the 4th wave will become more complex and prolonged. Simultaneously, we should not eliminate the option supposing the resumption of downside movement of the pair in the direction of the levels located below the 77 figure level.



Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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Saturday, April 16, 2011 | 0 comments | Read More

Fractal Analysis for March 03, 2011 (Daily Strategy)


GBP/USD Bearish Outlook , March 03, 2011 (Daily Strategy)


GBP/USD

Today, the important levels for British pound - United States dollar pair are 1.6365 (1st resistance) 1.6345 (fractal) , 1.6331 (fractal) 1.6296 (daily pivot).
An impulsive descendant movement can take place after the breakout of 1.6240

Now, the pair's downwards potential is stronger than ever, we predict a downwards movement towards the first, support monthly level around 1.6050.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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Saturday, April 16, 2011 | 0 comments | Read More

Fundamental Analysis for April 15, 2011


The Fundamental Market Review for April 15, 2011


EUR/USD has been moving in a side diapason, yet, the EUR prospects appear to be brigher. So far the high of 1.4502 was registered for this currency pair with the low remaining at the level of 1.4440. However, the US dollar still lacks the opportunity to strengthen. Hopes for further increase in the interest rates on the part of the European central bank together with constant requests for buying Euro amid falling of Asian central banks and sovereign investment funds are likely to support the Euro at a high rate.

The ongoing debt problems of Portugal, Greece and Ireland serve for investors to remind of real risks related to the single currency. Moody’s rating agency cut the rating of Ireland from Baa3 to Baa1 and left its forecast negative. As the agency representatives inform, on Thursday Greece’s central bank governor George Provopoulos announced that debt restructuring will not be a solution to debt-related problems of the country. He added that Greece should step up reforms. "As I have often stated in the past, debt restructuring is neither necessary nor desirable--as it would create more problems than the ones that it would attempt to solve," Provopoulos said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires. Member of the ECB's Executive Board Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell claimed on Friday that the ECB believes in the capability of Greece to continue implementing the consolidation programme and in its ability to implement it without debt restructuring.

Investors expect a rather significant microeconomic statistics to be published today. It is to include the data on the US securities bought by foreigners, net capital inflow and national industrial production.





Performed by Natalia Grigorieva, Analytical expert

InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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Saturday, April 16, 2011 | 0 comments | Read More